Gun Control – Answering The Issues Raised

I would like to thank @simonr916 for raising some interesting challenges to my previous post on gun control.

To address the points raised:

“My main contention with your blog is your argument that there is no correlation between gun ownership and homicide rates. You take your analysis here from another blogger who gets their data from a range of sources including Wikipedia pages of disputed accuracy and pro-gun websites.”

If the data is wrong, then point out where it is wrong. It is not wrong simply because it appears in Wikipedia!

There are two sets of data presented in the blog:

International Data

In this case the data appearing in Wikepedia comes from very respected sources:

The primary sources for the Data On Intentional Homicide Rates By Country are the United Nations Global Study on Homicide and Homicide Statistics 2012.

The primary source for the Wikepedia data on Number of Guns per Capita is the Geneva Graduate Institute of International Studies“Small Arms Survey 2007″ and  Small Arms Survey 2007 Part 2

Neither of these sources are “of disputed accuracy”, nor are they “pro-gun websites”

USA State By State Data

The data on homicides and populations by state are sourced from the FBI Crime in the United States 2011

The data on gun ownership by state are sourced from About.com, the primary source is the 2001 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The numbers as reported in the Washington Post can be seen here.

Neither of these sources are of disputed accuracy, nor are they “pro-gun websites”, although the pro-gun website USCarry.com did have the temerity to quote the report!

On this point, you are simply wrong, the data is from reputable sources.

“This analysis makes no attempt to adjust for socio-economic
factors such as population density, poverty and inequality, levels of
corruption within government and law enforcement etc.”

 Unless you have meaningful data any attempt to control for other variables is simply adding unproven assumptions and error under the guise of increasing accuracy. In relation to the factors you quote:

Population density – This is not uniform over a state or a country. One state could have x,000 people per square mile packed into three large cities, another state could have the same density but spread across many rural communities. A state wide population density is meaningless.

Poverty and inequality are also not uniform over a state or a country. Absolute poverty? Poverty relative to the median in the state? The median in the country?, the mean? Inequality, the same questions, compared to the state, the country, the ethnic group?

Corruption. Measured in what units and with what degree of accuracy.

Yes of course homicides are caused by a multitude of factors, but without at least some correlation between the two variables you are interested in there is nothing to investigate!

“This article from the peer-reviewed American Journal of Public Health (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pm… looked at gun ownership and homicide rates and homicide across the US, made adjustments for socio-economic factors, and concludes that there is a correlation between gun ownership and homicide.”

The article includes no source data that can be examined, no regression equations and no indication of what or how other variables were corrected for. It does not use state level gun ownership data, but a metric it calls FS/S based on the ratio of suicides using guns to total suicides. Its comparison of arbitrary subsets of top and bottom data is not a valid statistical technique.

It is always possible to torture data into telling you whatever you want to hear by the use of undefined control variables, invalid assumptions and cherry picking elements of the data set.

As can be seen at the end of the paper, this research was funded by the anti-gun Joyce Foundation the anti-gun Robert Woods Johnson Foundation and George Soros’ anti-gun Open Society Institute, so your appeal to authority is even further undermined.

Your faith in peer review is touching but misplaced, as this shows.

“Summaries of other, scholarly articles with similar findings can be found here:

http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/1…
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hi…

I will not go through every paper, but I will point out that most of the articles on the second link are by the same researcher who carried out the anti-gun lobby funded research in the first article you quoted. By way of balance, I will also point out some alternative scholarly articles that support the analysis in my original blog post.

Harvard Journal of Law & Public Policy
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 

It is clear that torturing the data can make it confess to whatever the relevant paymaster, special interest group wants. Most researchers in the field have a view that they are trying to support. So it is very difficult to know who you can trust.

However, a little lateral thinking will enable us to get to the truth:

If Gun Ownership were a significant factor in homicide rates then scholars investigating the relationship of homicide to other things, such as poverty, would need to control for it in their research. These scholars probably have no political interest in the gun control debate and will only control for variables that have a real influence.

This paper from the British Journal of Criminology reviews 47 cross national studies of the relationship between poverty and homicides. Conveniently for our purposes it also lists the variables that the researchers controlled for in each study.

Not one of them controlled for gun ownership!

If scholars without a vested interest don’t regard gun ownership as a variable worth controlling for in their own field of research, I think it is safe to assume it is not important.

 

“This article shows that gun controls introduced in Australia in 1996 were followed by
accelerated declines in firearm deaths:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pm…

Yet, this paper concludes the opposite, that it had no impact:

http://www.ssaa.org.au/capital-news/2008/2008-09-04_melbourne-uni-paper-Aust-gun-buyback.pdf

“You also make the argument that gun control will not prevent criminals from obtaining guns, and you draw a comparison with illegal drugs. However illegal guns are, almost without exception, legal guns that have become illegal either by being stolen from their lawful owner, by being transported across a border, or by a decommissioned weapon – sold as a replica – being re-commissioned.

As such, reducing the availability of legal weapons would have the result of decreasing the availability of illegal weapons. This reduced supply will not eradicate
availability altogether but would keep guns out of the hands of many criminals,
and would increase the cost to others.”

All drugs are illegal and still there is ample supply. I see no reason why making guns illegal would work any better than making drugs illegal. Certainly the existing supply of legal guns that suddenly become illegal would not disappear from existence and unless every country in the world made guns illegal there would be plenty of legal guns and replicas that could be imported.

“You argue availability of guns in the UK based upon a single newspaper article quoting ananonymous source ‘close to the trade in illegal weapons’. The reliability of this as evidence to support your case is highly debateable”

There is no register of illegal gun purchases and no hard data that I could find. However, the single newspaper article is certainly not alone in reaching that conclusion:

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/dispatches/articles/guns-in-britain

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/6180559.stm

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/347592/The-guns-and-grenades-of-gangland-Britain

“but, in any case, it is unquestionably more difficult to obtain an illegal weapon in the UK than it is to walk into Wal-Mart and buy one in the US. Whilst it is likely that hardened criminals with the right connections will always be able to access weapons, controls limit their availability and ensure that, by doing so, they face the risk of prosecution and imprisonment even if they do not use the weapon.”

That is certainly true, but it ignores the defensive value of legal gun ownership. The criminals may be slightly hindered in their ability to acquire guns, but the law abiding victims would be totally prevented from doing so.

“In the case of school shootings, where the killer is usually an isolated and troubled
teenager, such controls are likely to put guns completely beyond their reach.”

For the tiny minority of cases where a law abiding citizen with no criminal connections decides to commit mass murder then it would certainly make it more difficult to use a gun. However, There is a global phenomena of mass murder using motor vehicles as the weapon these would still be available to the school killer intent on mass murder.

“Your argument that school killers’ motive is murder/suicide and so they may choose to use a bomb instead, makes an assumption as to the killers’ motives without evidence. Other possible motives may be the feelings of power and control they expect to
experience, seeing others in fear, the glamourisation of gun use and so on.”

Many motives are possible, they will probably be different in each case. However the actions usually involve the mass killing of school pupils followed by the death of the perpetrator. Such actions can also be (and have been) carried out via  homemade explosives or using a motor vehicle,  and it is pure speculation that only the use of guns would satisfy the motivations.

“Following the Dunblane massacre in 1996, gun laws in the UK were tightened. There have been no mass school shootings in the UK since, and – notably – no school bombings either.”

That is a very weak argument, Dunblane is the only mass school shooting I can find in the UK. In the many decades from the invention of the first fire-arm up to to the ban in 1996 there was 1 incident. In the 16 years since there have been none. There were tens of 16 year periods without incident before the ban. If would require hundreds, possibly thousands more years without incident, before any valid conclusion could be drawn.

“You go on to argue that gun ownership provides protection against violence. This ignores statistical evidence that guns kept in homes are more likely to be involved in accidental or criminal shootings than self defence – and more likely still to be used in
the suicide of the gun owner or another family member (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pu….”

The paper deals only with guns that were fired. It says that for each time a gun was fired in self defence there were four unintentional shootings and seven criminal assaults or homicides.

What it fails to include are all the times a burgler, mugger or would be rapist was scared off by a victim showing a gun that didn’t need to be fired. Only in the, presumably quite rare, event of the assailant continuing their attack once the gun was produced would the gun need to be fired.

For some papers that look at the whole picture and conclude that significant self defence usage and value is provided, refer to:

Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, vol. 86, issue 1, 1995.

St. Louis University Public Law Review

And yes, some criminals may be discouraged from some crimes if they believe the intended victim may be armed. It seems likely that they will simply move onto another target instead.”

In a society with a culture of gun ownership, who do they move on to? Each potential target could be armed and capable of defending themselves.

“Equally, it may be that fear of an armed victim may encourage a
criminal to carry a gun or use a greater level of violence than would otherwise
be the case.”

Not every burglar, mugger or rapist is happy with moving up to the status of murderer. Just as likely they would decide that the payoffs from a life of crime had changed and perhaps some other form of occupation would become more attractive.

Some interesting challenges from @simonr916 but nothing that causes me to change my position

 

Posted in General Principles | 6 Comments

Gun Control – An Unemotional Analysis

Let’s start with cards on the table. I don’t own a gun, I don’t shoot and I have no desire to own a gun. I am not a member of the NRA and I live in the United Kingdom which has a general anti-gun culture. However I am, obviously, a libertarian and libertarians generally are against gun control.

Ok, disclaimers out of the way let’s have a look at the issue:

The first thing to make clear is that a ban on guns is not a ban from existence, it will not automatically make guns disappear from society. (This should be an obvious and trivial point, but some of the arguments used in favour of gun control rely implicitly or explicitly on assuming the ban eliminates guns!)

A ban on guns is simply a legal device that makes the owning of guns a crime.

The effectiveness of legal bans is not 100%. e.g.

There is already a ban on the shooting of innocent people with guns.
Its called murder and has always been a serious crime.

However, this has not stopped innocent people being shot. Indeed every person murdered with a gun,  was murdered… despite the ban on shooting innocent people!

Of course, not being 100% effective does not mean that making gun ownership illegal would have no effect.

I can see two effects.

1.  Criminals wouldn’t be able to buy guns legally, making it  more difficult for them

2. Law abiding citizens would no longer own guns

The Impact on Criminals of Making Gun Ownership Illegal

If gun ownership were made illegal, the difficulty of acquiring illegal guns by criminals would probably not be very high.

Drugs have been illegal for a long time and yet they are available in every city for anyone who wants to buy them.

In the UK, which has strong gun control and no widespread culture of gun ownership, it is still very easy for criminals to acquire guns.

Even without gun control in the USA, only 20% of convicted felons purchased their firearms through a licensed fire arms dealer, 80% preferring the black market.
(Armed & Considered Dangerous: A Survey of Felons & Their Firearms  - Aldine de Gruyter – 1986)

However, it must be acknowledged that banning guns, would have some relatively small effect in reducing criminal gun ownership.

The pro gun control argument  runs: “Well if just 100 criminals who would have murdered somebody with a gun, no longer have access to a gun then we have saved 100 lives.”

This argument commits the fallacy of denying the antecedent

The confusion here is that if  A wants to Murder  B and he doesn’t have a gun, he may still murder Mr B….with a knife, with a baseball bat, hitting him with a car, or in any one of a multitude of other ways.

Guns may be the most convenient tool for the would be murderer (and lack of convenience may stop some murders).  But certainly if you hate someone enough to murder them a little inconvenience is hardly an insurmountable obstacle.

Currently 68% of all homicides in the USA involve firearms:
(The claim by the pro gun lobby that more people are killed by baseball bats than guns is an urban myth)

FBI Homicide Data
Murder Victims
by Weapon – 2011
Weapons 2011 Percentage
Total 12,664 100%
Total firearms: 8,583 68%
Handguns 6,220 49%
Rifles 323 3%
Shotguns 356 3%
Other guns 97 1%
Firearms, type not stated 1,587 13%
Knives or cutting instruments 1,694 13%
Blunt objects (clubs, hammers, etc.) 496 4%
Personal weapons (hands, fists, feet, etc.)1 728 6%
Poison 5 0%
Explosives 12 0%
Fire 75 1%
Narcotics 29 0%
Drowning 15 0%
Strangulation 85 1%
Asphyxiation 89 1%
Other weapons or weapons not stated 853 7%
1 Pushed is included in personal weapons.  

But, a criminal, intent on murder without access to a gun, clearly has a variety of alternative options for killing his victim.

Empirically, you can analyse gun ownership rates against against homicide rates for different countries to see if higher gun ownership leads to more murders, or if a reduction in gun ownership simply substitutes other methods of murder.

A positive correlation would indicate that higher availability of guns increases the homicide rate.

When you actually  look at the data there is no statistically significant correlation. On a worldwide level, the relationship is actually negative, for the OECD excluding outliers it is also negative. (If you include the USA and Mexico outliers, you get an insignificant positive correlation. If you don’t understand why its correct to exclude these outliers, then your statistics needs a brush up, for a start you should read this!)

Taking a look at the USA specifically, comparing the  state data for homicides with the state by state gun ownership statistics shows no statistically significant correlation either.

gunsvhomicides 300x200 Gun Control   An Unemotional Analysis

For the Statisticians the adjusted R squared is 0.0%!

For the non statisticians, this means that there is absolutely no relationship between the two.

It seems clear to me that both logically and empirically, the impact of banning guns on reducing criminal homicides would be negligible.

Even the argument that banning assault rifles would stop school killings doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. In most of these cases the killer ends his shooting spree by turning the gun on himself or being shot by the police. It is essentially a suicide mission.

What is to stop the would be killer, without access to such firearms, from becoming a suicide bomber instead, killing as many or more than with an assault rifle but using a few pounds of fertilizer and some home electronics ?

So, moving on to…

 The removal of guns from law abiding citizens

The most obvious and visible benefit of removing guns from law abiding citizens would be the elimination of accidental deaths through firearms accidents.

However, as Steven Levitt pointed out in Freakonomics (p149) the risk of firearms accidents very low. The chance of a child drowning in a house with a residential swimming pool is 1/11,000. The chance of a child being killed by a gun in a house with firearms is 1/1,000,000. (i.e. Swimming pool ownership is 100 times more dangerous than firearm ownership!)

If you want to ban fire-arms because they are too risky for private individuals to own, then to be consistent you would also need to ban swimming pools, cars, knives, bicycles, ladders and lots of other fairly innocuous household objects which are far more risky.

The pro gun control argument then runs: ”But if even 100 people where saved from accidents then it would surely be worthwhile. People don’t need guns, they do need cars, ladders, etc”

This line of reasoning suffers from the Broken Window Fallacy, which is to take into account only the superficial and clearly observable effects and ignore significant less obvious effects.

The gun control side of the argument point to the clearly quantifiable deaths caused by gun accidents. They ignore from their calculations all the lives saved because a potential victim was armed when encountering a potentially violent criminal, or the crimes avoided because the criminal feared the potential victim might be armed.

It is analogous to saying that surgery kills thousands of people every year.

That is true, but it is certainly not the whole story, millions of people are also saved from death each year by surgery.

We can only decide if surgery, or gun ownership by law abiding citizens, is a good or bad thing by looking at both sides of the equation, the lives saved as well as the lives lost.

In the case of deaths avoided because law abiding home owners had guns, it is difficult to quantify, but:

A 1982 survey of male felons in 11 state prisons dispersed across the U.S. found:

• 34% had been “scared off, shot at, wounded, or captured by an armed victim”

• 40% had decided not to commit a crime because they “knew or believed that the victim was carrying a gun”

• 69% personally knew other criminals who had been “scared off, shot at, wounded, or captured by an armed victim

Clearly the deterrent effect on criminals of law abiding home owners being armed, or having the potential to be armed, has a significant effect in preventing both crimes in action and reducing the number of attempted crimes.

The other difficult to quantify benefit of gun ownership is perhaps the most important from a libertarian point of view.

It is the one that was in the minds of the US founding fathers when they drafted the second amendment to the US constitution, which gives US citizens the right to bear arms:

The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government.
― Thomas Jefferson

 In 2002, the JPFO published a list of genocides in the 20th century that have occurred in countries with gun control.

# 1915 – 1917 Ottoman Turkey, 1.5 million Armenians murdered;
# 1929 – 1953 Soviet Union, 20 million people that opposed Stalin were murdered;
# 1933 – 1945 Nazi occupied Europe, 13 million Jews, Gypsies and others;
# 1927 – 1949 China, 10 million pro communists;
# 1948 – 1952 China, 20 million anti communists;
# 1960 – 1981 Guatemala, 100,000 Mayan Indians Murdered;
# 1971 – 1979 Uganda, 300,000 Christians and Political Rivals of Idi Amin murdered;
# 1975 – 1979 Cambodia, 2 million educated persons murdered.
# 1994 Rwanda 800,000 Tutsi’s murdered.
# 1992 – 1995 Bonsia 200,000 Muslims murdered.

Of course there could never be oppression of the people by the state in the 21st century, just ask the residents of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Syria, North Korea…..

The American constitution did not envisage an impeding tyrannical US government, but it was drafted to protect the citizens from the possibility of one.

So far at least, it has worked:

The beauty of the Second Amendment is that
it will not be needed until they try to take it.”
― Thomas Jefferson

Summary

On the negative side:

Gun control would not stop criminals from killing people either with easily obtainable illegal guns, or with legal substitutes such as knives, bats, etc.

Gun control would disarm law abiding home owners, making them more vulnerable to attacks on person and property by the armed criminals.

Gun control would open the door to the potential of future state oppression.

On the positive side:

Gun control would prevent a small number of firearms accidents, the risk of which is less than drowning in a swimming pool or falling off a ladder.

If you can think about the issues logically, rather than being swept along by, a natural, emotional response to the most recent tragedy, the conclusion seems obvious.

Posted in General Principles | 11 Comments

Abortion – Does The Foetus Have a Right To Life?

Having recently analysed the emotionally charged issue of Fox Hunting, I thought it was time to take a reasoned look at perhaps the most emotive issue of all, abortion.

This is a complex area for everyone, but particularly for libertarians who are by definition both pro-life and pro-choice and whose fundamental moral keystone is the principle of non-aggression.

There are two distinct moral/philosophical issues to examine and because of the complexity I will write a separate post on each.

The first is the ethical/moral status of the foetus, is it a potential human life with whatever rights that provides or a full human life with all the associated rights that come with that position.

The second issue, which will be covered in my next post, is the resolution of the conflict of rights between those of the foetus to life (if any) and those of the pregnant woman to the ownership of her body.

In this post I will address only the status and rights of the foetus.

The first step in thinking clearly about the issue is to clarify the meanings of the terms used, particularly “human life”. It is very easy to fall into the logical fallacy of equivocation when using the term “human life”, e.g.

It is clear that both the sperm and the egg are genetically human and that they are both alive in a biological sense. However this is not what we mean by “human life” in a moral sense. If it were then male masturbation would be genocide and female menstruation would be murder. It is also clear that the appendix is genetically human and alive, but nobody argues for a ban on appendectomies to protect the “human life” of the appendix.

There are two meanings of “human life” that are easily confused, the first meaning illustrated with the examples above refers to genetically human life and is a biological use  rather than a moral one.

The second meaning of “human life” is membership of the class of beings to whom we owe moral obligations. This second meaning is the ethically and morally relevant one that we are referring to when we say it is wrong to take a “human life”.

We would presumably consider it equally wrong to kill an intelligent alien visitor without good cause, regardless of the non human nature of his DNA.

So what do we mean by “human life” in the ethical/moral sense

Philosophers debate at length the characteristics required to be members of the moral community and become entitled to the rights associated with it. e.g.

Mary Warren’s list of characteristics:

1. Consciousness (of objects and events external and/or internal to the being), and in particular the capacity to feel pain;

2. Reasoning (the developed capacity to solve new and relatively complex problems);

3. Self-motivated activity (activity which is relatively independent of genetic or direct external control).

4. The capacity to communicate, messages of with an indefinite number of possible contents on indefinitely many possible topics.

5. The presence of self-concepts and self-awareness.

However, there is an obvious criticism that the criteria listed are derived by observing the properties of a class of entities that are deemed to belong to the moral community and since this class excludes foetuses the argument carries no more weight than a simple assertion that foetuses are not members of the moral community.

Another problem with such criteria is that they not only conclude, inevitably, that a foetus has no right to life, they also entail the conclusion that a new born infant or a mentally disabled adult and many animals have no right to life either. A conclusion that offends our moral intuition.

Fortunately, we can avoid getting drawn into the complex philosophical debates about what constitutes “human life” in a moral sense by looking at the problem from the opposite end, where emotions do not cloud reason so much, that of human death.

If a fully functioning human being, with all the rights associated with that status, is involved in an accident they can be kept in a state of biological life via medical machinery almost indefinitely. However, it is generally accepted that if there is no cerebral brain wave activity then there is no “human life” in the moral sense. Turning off the life support machines is not murder but simply the deactivation of biological processes sustained by external means.

If this were not the case then it would be necessary to keep the corpses of everyone who “died” in hospital on life support machines forever or be guilty of murder!

Having established that human life,in the moral sense, requires cerebral brain wave activity the question becomes much simpler, when does the foetus develop the sort of cerebral brain wave activity that indicates human life?

This is a question of biology, rather and philosophy and it appears in the foetus between twenty four weeks and thirty weeks of conception.
(Pro-life claims of earlier activity appear to be scientifically invalid.)

A foetus younger than this is not a human life in the ethical sense and can have no more right to life than the body kept warm on a life support machine. The woman having an abortion is no more guilty of murder than the doctor who turns off the life support machine of a brain dead accident victim.

It is tempting if you currently hold anti-abortion views at this point to revert to the potential for human life argument and try to distinguish the case of the dead man on the life support machine. After all he has no potential for life, whereas the foetus has potential for a full human life.

However, we have already refuted the argument for rights for biological entities with the potential for human life on the grounds it would make menstruation murder and masturbation genocide. With advances in biological science even non embyonic  cells now have the potential for human life. Can we seriously consider cutting nails or hair as murder!

To conclude, a foetus up to 24 weeks is not a “human life” in the moral sense, it is a  genetically human biological entity with the potential for “human life”, but such an entity has no right to life.

Abortion of a foetus up to 24 weeks does not involve the violation of any human rights and libertarians should support the woman’s right of self ownership to abort a foetus if she wishes to.

Posted in General Principles | 16 Comments

Socialist Nonsense on The Evils of Wage Labour

A lot of socialists on Twitter still cling to Marx’s labour theory of value and see all employers as exploiting the employee.

The argument runs that any increase in the value of raw materials has been created by the labour of the employees and they should be entitled to that increase in value. Paying them a wage deprives them of what is rightfully theirs, the excess being taken as unearned surplus profits by the exploiters.

Unfortunately because it is very hard to understand economics and remain a socialist,  most people putting forward this view are economically naive.

Here is a simple common sense argument that helps demonstrates the error of this view.

Exactly the Same Labour Activity Can Produce Products With
 Very Different, Even Negative Values

Consider two workers in the non exploitative socialist Utopia, let’s call them Murray and Friedrich. They are both skilled labourers and make widgets.

Murray works for Tescopoly Plc and his widgets are painted blue.
Carl works for Leylandus Plc and his widgets are painted red.

In the market Blue Widgets are very popular they command a high price and sell in large numbers. Tescopoly makes large profits and the increase in wealth is shared between all the workers in the business. For each hour spent making widgets Murray is rewarded with £50.

Unfortunately, Leylandus misread the market and nobody wants red widgets. Despite making thousands of them, none were sold and Leylandus made a huge loss. This loss must be shared equally between the workers in the business. For each hour spent making widgets Carl must contribute £50 of his savings.

Both workers did exactly the same thing, they made widgets. In one case the widgets made a profit and in another they made a loss. Despite containing the same amount of labour, one product was worthless to consumers while the other was highly valued.

If socialism is all about equality how can its own system of reward give one man £50 an hour while costing another £50 an hour for doing the same thing?

It should be plain that the relative value of the products and performance of the two businesses was determined, not by the labour hours spent, but by the decision of the entrepreneur to produce one type of product or another and meet the demands of the market most effectively.

The idea that wage labour benefits the capitalist and not the employee is also a myth.

The benefits to the employee are:

1. Capitalists take on the risk of business failure. The workers are paid wages for the time they spend working on the job, they no longer have to take the risk that their work will yield no reward. They have certainty of income which enables them to plan their lives.

It is no different to the way that some people choose risk and invest their life savings in shares, others prefer security and invest in savings accounts. One accepts risk in return for the chance of high reward, the other accepts a lower reward in return for security. Nobody claims the holder of a savings account is being exploited, particularly during a stock market crash!

2. Capitalists provide cash flow for employees during the production process. A Christmas decorations business may operate at a loss all year, only to make enough profit in December to make the business very profitable for the year. The capitalist provides the money to pay the workers during the period that the business is paying out for materials, etc and not receiving any money in.

Most workers do not want to run the risk that they could work all year and end up having to pay out for losses. They do not want to wait until the end of the year when the production has been sold and the accounts worked out before they have money to buy groceries.

Far from exploiting workers, the wage system gives them security and meets their time preference requirements for quick payment, which is why so many of us are employees and quite happy to be so.

 

 

Posted in General Principles | 8 Comments

OFVEG Demands Simplification of Vegetable Tariffs

The Office For The Regulation of Vegetable Markets (OFVEG) is teaming up with consumer groups to bring price standardization to the vegetable market in the wake of growing consumer concerns about the bewildering choices on offer.

Shockingly, the retail vegetable market remains mostly unregulated leading to a huge array of prices and choices which experts say is leading to worrying amounts of consumer confusion and increasing time off work through stress. It is reported to cost the British Taxpayer upwards of £458,844,938,839.29 every hour.

“Tesco finest organic sprouts cost far more than sprouts on a local market”
“I shop at at farm shops, why should I pay more than someone who shops at Aldi?”

Head of OFVEG, Norman Blithering-Eedyot, explained the problem:

“The vegetable market seems designed to bamboozle customers with choice. Vegetables can be purchased by weight, in packets of different sizes, frozen and even in tins. The variety of outlets is too broad, farmers markets, convenience stores, supermarkets and even direct delivery vegetable boxes are causing major confusion. The same product is priced differently at different times of the year, can be sourced from different countries and grown using different farming techniques. This is compounded by the huge variety of different vegetables available, from Artichokes to Yams. These differences are being exploited by the re-sellers to make profits!”

The government has outlined new plans to simplify the market by regulation, under the supervision of OFVEG. This will ensure that each shop is only allowed to offer a small number of different prices (Or tariffs as the regulator has termed them).

There will be one price for Organic Vegetables, a different one for local vegetables and a final tariff for imported vegetables. These prices will be the same regardless of pack size, storage method or transport distance. In addition each vegetable’s price ticket will show if the vegetable could be purchased for a lower tariff in the store. There are also plans to show other retailers prices to ensure that everyone is aware of the lowest price, but the small size of vegetables and the large number of retailers is making labelling difficult.

The Prime Minister had previously promised that everyone would pay the same single lowest price for vegetables, but that promise has been delayed for the time being while OFVEG regulation is implemented.

Mr Blithering-Eedyot said:

“Of course these proposals are only a first step. There is still far too much variation in pricing between shops and frankly too many vegetable types. We will be lobbying the government to ban most vegetables, bringing the choice down to a more manageable three or four different types, which according to our research is the number most people eat anyway.

In addition we will seek  voluntary adoption of single pricing across all retailers. If this is not taken up we will have to licence vegetable retail or, in the extreme, push for the abolition of independent retail altogether and set up a system of state run food stores.

We are sure that this reduction in confusing choice and price differentials will be in the best interests of the consumer”

Sources close to the Prime Minister confirmed that he is watching the situation closely and should regulation not result in a single low price for all vegetables for everyone he is prepared to legislate in the future.

Several free market think tanks have spoken out against the plans, but since they are just mouth pieces for the fat cats in the grocery trade, their comments have not been reported. The leaders of these regressive groups have since been arrested, child pornography has mysteriously appeared on their computers and blurred photographs probably show them  talking to people with beards who are almost certainly connected to Al Qaida.

 

 

Posted in Current Affairs | 1 Comment

Hunting Foxes With Hounds

Hunting foxes with hounds is one of those topics where emotion from both sides of the debate leaves little room for a reasoned analysis.

I tweeted that I thought it was a waste of money for the RSPCA to spend £330,000 to take a hunt to court where they were fined £6,800. The RSPCA has limited funds and in my opinion could have spent those funds much more effectively and alleviated much more animal suffering in other areas.

I later discovered that:

1. RSPCA kills 50% of the animals it rescues

2. Needlessly slaughters healthy animals for political ends

3. Is closing local branches because of a lack of funds

4. Chose not to prosecute travellers filmed cock fighting and hunting deer with dogs

5. Is one of Britain’s most complained about charities

So I think the charge that the RSPCA under the current militant leadership is more motivated by political agendas than animal welfare remains strong.

However, I have decided to analyse the general issue of hunting foxes with hounds in a bit more depth.

I am not a hunt supporter, or member of the Countryside Alliance, neither am I a vegetarian or a member of the league against cruel sports. I have a dog and consider myself to be an animal lover, I currently live in the countryside, but have lived in cities and towns as well.

Let’s break away from the emotion and examine some to the moral/philosophical arguments against fox hunting:

Hunting Increases Animal Suffering, Which is Wrong

It seems fairly obvious to me that chasing a fox with hounds which then rip it apart will cause a substantial degree of suffering for the fox!

However as Bastiat pointed out in his  essay the broken window you need to consider not just that which is obvious and can be easily observed, but also that which is related but not so obvious.

In this case there are two relevant aspects of animal suffering which are not observed. The first is what happens to the fox that is not killed by the hunt. In the wild it seems unlikely that the fox will die a pain free death, warmly snuggled in its bed with its cubs around it! More likely the fox will die of some painful disease or bloody accident that would also cause significant suffering. It seems debatable that hunting would cause much of a net increase in suffering to the fox population.

The second aspect is the animal suffering inflicted on other animals by the living fox. According to the league against cruel sports the main diet of the wild fox is the rabbit.
The absence of the fox will certainly spare many rabbits the suffering caused by being chased and ripped to shreds.

The rational analysis would seem to be that hunting foxes with hounds would lower net animal suffering when compared to leaving foxes to run free in the wild. Alleviating animal suffering is a strong philosophical argument for hunting foxes, not against it.

It is wrong for people to inflict suffering on animals for entertainment

On the surface this seems a much stronger argument. However anyone believing this and not wishing to be a hypocrite must be vegan.

Humans do not need to eat meat to live, all the nutrients and calories they require to sustain life can be obtained from plant sources.

The only justification for eating meat is entertainment, we eat meat because we enjoy it!
Modern farming methods inflict suffering on animals on a massive scale. The egg industry literally grind millions of baby male chicks alive every year. Hens are forced to live in tiny cages, pigs suffer in crates and there are many more examples of the intense suffering caused by modern factory farming.

In modern city society, we have mentally divorced our supermarket bought, cellophane wrapped packet of steak from the animal flesh that it really is. The fact that the suffering caused by factory farming is out of sight and out of mind does not make it any less real.

There is a moral/philosophical case that causing animal suffering for our pleasure is a moral wrong that must be stopped. However, to avoid hypocrisy such an argument can only be made by the vegans amongst us. The anti hunt supporter tucking into a bacon and egg sandwich would be absurd to try and use it.

It is wrong for people to inflict suffering on animals JUST for entertainment

Many would argue that the suffering inflicted through farming is different because it is not the primary reason for the activity, it is an unwanted by product if we want to feed the world on meat.

The suffering is not the source of the entertainment, the meat we eat is, which makes it different in kind. (I am not convinced that a suffering animal would give much credence to the distinction!)

However, It is arguably the case that inflicting cruelty on animals to produce tasty food is in some fundamental way different from, say boiling kittens alive to enjoy the sounds of their screams!

But hunting foxes with hounds seems to me nearer the farming example than the kitten example. The pleasure of hunting is derived from riding through the countryside and the thrill of the chase, not a ghoulish desire to see foxes ripped apart. (If this is not the case why does hunting drag scents seem to be flourishing). The suffering of foxes is not the purpose of hunting, it is a by product in the same way that animal suffering in farming is a by product.

Fox hunting also serves a practical purpose as the fox is, arguably at least, a pest. (Ask anyone who has had a dozen chickens ripped to pieces). In some countries the fox is officially a pest and it is the main vector carrier for rabies in Europe.

 Conclusion

It seems to me that hunting decreases overall animal suffering, so if that is the moral criteria for opposing hunts, it is simply misguided.

If the criteria is that it diminishes humanity to cause animal suffering solely for the pleasure of the suffering produced, I would agree, but would argue that hunting foxes with hounds does not meet those criteria.

If the criteria is that it diminishes humanity to cause animal suffering, even as a by product of pleasure, then I would respect that view coming from vegans. I would also expect the majority of anger to be directed against factory farming that causes suffering to hundreds of millions of animals every day, rather than fox hunting which causes suffering to a few hundred foxes a year.

Posted in Current Affairs, General Principles | 26 Comments

Why “Taxing The Rich” Isn’t The Answer

The answer to the UK’s financial problems, according to the left, is simple, just tax the rich  (until the pips squeak). If they paid their “Fair Share” then we would be able to afford the high levels of public spending that we “enjoy”.

This is of course nonsense, if you take a few moments to examine the figures.

The UK central government will spend £520 Billion in 2012
http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/piechart_2012_UK_total

The deficit, the amount we overspend each year, is forecast at £126 Billion in 2012
http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/March-2012-EFO1.pdf

What About a Higher Income Tax on “The Rich” ?
The first question of course is, who are “The Rich”?
The socialists view is usually,  ”Anyone earning 5 times more than me”, but in absolute terms who do you include:

The Top 10% of UK income earners?
This would include anyone earning more than £50,500
(Business department managers, Deputy Head Teachers, NHS Dentists, Computer Programmers, NHS Managers)

The Top 5% of UK income earners?
This would include anyone earning more than £68,500
(Small Company Directors, Senior Managers, MPs, Provincial solicitors, provincial accountants, IT specialists, Pharmacists, Senior NHS Managers, GPs)

The Top 1% of UK income earners?
This would include anyone earning more than £156,000
(Larger Company Directors and Senior Managers, London Solicitors, Accountancy Partners, Top Doctors (GPs), Civil Servants (Pay Scale 4), top salespeople, senior bankers, the most successful people in most fields)

The Total income of those earning in the top 1% is £121 Billion a year.

So if you increase the income tax on “the rich” (and assume that they don’t work less reducing taxable income  or spend less reducing VAT, or leave the country altogether) this is the extra you can raise

+10% (55% Rate) £12.1 Billion
+20% (65% Rate) £24.2 Billion
+30% (75% Rate) £36.3 Billion

If you raised the tax rate on the top 1% of income earners to 75% you would raise enough to fund government spending for just 25 days!
(36.3B/520B x 365 = 25.5 Days)
http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/income_tax/liabilities-april2012.pdf

We would still have an annual deficit of £89.7 Billion

If you are a more central leaning socialist and not comfortable with punishing the successful middle classes with tax rates of 75% you might want to focus instead on the “Super Rich”, perhaps defined as those earning £1M or more a year.

The problem is that there are simply not enough of them. There are 16,000 in total with a total income of £38.5B.

If you taxed the “Super Rich” at 100% of their earnings it would only generate enough tax to fund government spending for 27 days.
http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/income_tax/liabilities-april2012.pdf

We would still have an annual  deficit of £87.5 Billion.

Even if you think it is OK to punish success, even if you think people will continue to produce at the same rate under very high tax rates, even if you don’t think any of the rich will leave the country, it’s still obvious that higher income tax for the rich won’t solve the problem of a government spending far more than its income.

How about a Wealth Tax on the Super Rich?
Some socialists assert that the “Super Rich” have an army of tax avoidance lawyers to make sure they don’t have any taxable income. What we need to do, they say,  is introduce a wealth tax to solve our problems.

The top 1,000 richest people in the UK have a total worth of £414 Billion.
http://www.therichest.org/nation/sunday-times-rich-list/

If you steal everything owned by the “Super Rich” it would be enough to fund Government spending for…. 291 days. 

Alternatively it would cover the budget deficit and enable the country to balance its books for 39 months. (Assuming of course, that the loss of taxation from the income, consumption, businesses and employees of the Super Rich remained unchanged.)

Of course from a Libertarian point of view all taxation is simply theft, but even from a socialist point of view it must be clear that taxing the rich, even at 100%, is not enough to solve the financial problems of the government.

You have to either significantly increase the tax burden on the middle classes or deal with the real problem and cut government spending to fit our national wealth.

 

 

 

Posted in Current Affairs, General Principles | 6 Comments

Binge Drinking – Another Case of Language Abuse

The political left wing have always been masters of language abuse.

They take a word with an emotional response like “poverty” which conjures up mental images of starving children in Africa and re-define it into things like fuel poverty and child poverty  which have nothing to do with what the rest of us think of as poverty, but are in fact labels given to promote their egalitarian agenda. (Follow the links above for a detailed destruction of their two types of “poverty”).

Everyone wants to avoid real poverty so people get sucked into supporting legislation that is  aimed at egalitarianism and not poverty alleviation in any sense that they understand it

The health Nazis have adopted this tactic with the term “Binge Drinking”.

When the average person thinks of binge drinking, they conjure up mental images of drunken teenagers, falling over in the street, vomiting on the pavement, shouting, swearing, fighting and causing a general nuisance to people living near by.

Nobody wants to suffer, or see their neighbours suffer, with this kind of public nuisance, so everyone is against this sort of “binge drinking”.

This where the health Nazis jump in. Since nobody has formally defined “binge drinking” they announce that binge drinking is to be defined as drinking double the recommended daily alcohol unit intake. Since most people don’t have a clue what alcohol units are, or what the daily recommended amounts are they just assume that this definition simply quantifies what they think of as binge drinking.

With this clever slight of hand they have converted everyone who is against drunken noisy teenagers, fighting and vomiting in the street into being against drinking more than twice the recommended daily alcohol unit intake.

The health nazis then proclaim that legislation must be passed to stamp out the “widespread problem” of binge drinking, such as setting minimum alcohol pricing levels. The unthinking sheeple are tricked into using  their desire to stamp out anti-social drunken loutishness, into supporting this.

If they took the time to stop to think they would realise that someone who simply drinks twice the daily recommended alcohol units is not what they mean when they use the term binge drinker. By the crazy health nazi definition:

How many people would support legislation designed to solve the “widespread problem” of couples sharing a bottle of wine over dinner or to stem the binge drinking of people like the queen?

Those with a more libertarian view might even go so far as to suggest that adults have the right to choose for themselves whether they think the health risks in sharing a bottle of wine are outweighed by the pleasure they get from drinking it.

 

 

Posted in Current Affairs, General Principles | 4 Comments

The Health Gestapo – “Second Hand Smoke Causes Meningitis in Children”

Today an article appeared on the BBC news site about the dangers of second hand smoke. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-17551568

What amazed me was the quote from Deborah Arnott, chief executive of Action on Smoking and Health (ASH):

 ”There is no safe level of exposure to tobacco smoke and children are at risk of a range of diseases such as asthma, ear infections, and potentially fatal meningitis as a result of breathing in second-hand smoke in the home or car.”

She seems to be implying that breathing in second hand smoke causes meningitis!

The absurdity of this is clear when you understand that there are two types of meningitis, one caused by bacteria and the other by a virus. Unless the laws of physics and biology have been re-written overnight, it is no more possible for smoke to transform into bacteria than it is for lead to turn into gold.

At first I thought this might be simply one of those correlation/causation fallacies that the health Nazis are so fond of. I.e. somebody had found that people breathing in second hand smoke had higher rates of meningitis than those who don’t and assumed a causal link.  This is the same line of reasoning that would observe that more smokers travel on buses than non smokers and therefore smoking causes bus travel!

(The reality of course being that smoking is more common in the poorer sections of society and they are more likely to have to use the bus, because its cheaper than owning a car. The correlation is caused by another hidden factor, poverty)

Looking at the report there does appear to be an increased chance of contracting meningitis in a household that contains smokers, p88+

http://bookshop.rcplondon.ac.uk/contents/pub305-e37e88a5-4643-4402-9298-6936de103266.pdf

However, all of the studies quoted (apart from 1, which showed no difference) pre-date the following study funded by the Meningitis Research Foundation and published in 2006 titled:

Is it exposure to cigarette smoke or to smokers which increases the risk of meningococcal disease in teenagers?
http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/35/2/330.full.pdf+html

It turns out that for smokers the probability of contracting meningitis is higher. Not because smoking causes meningitis but because smokers have higher carriage rates for the bacteria that cause meningitis than non smokers. (Now this could be because of smoking, or it could be because of the other lifestyle factors that smokers tend to have that non smokers don’t, including increased poverty, worse housing conditions, worse diet, increased levels of recreational drug use, more time huddled together in high physical contact small groups, etc, etc, etc.)

So what did this study in 2006 actually show about the dangers of getting meningitis from second hand smoke:

“Contact with smokers is associated with increased risk of MD in adolescents. This is more likely to be due to higher carriage rates in smokers than to exposure to smoke

In epidemiological studies that assess risk from passive smoking, exposure to smoke should be differentiated where possible from contact with smokers.

So the truth is not that exposure to second hand smoke causes meningitis in children.

The truth is that, unsurprisingly, contact with people who are carrying the meningitis bacteria increases the probability of contracting meningitis!

Posted in Current Affairs, Uncategorized | 20 Comments

Abu Qatada – When Protecting Liberty is Most Important

His Grace Archbishop Cranmer has an article today that calls for the “Extradition of Abu Qatada Regardless”:  http://archbishop-cranmer.blogspot.com/2012/02/government-must-deport-abu-qatada.html

I am a big fan of his grace, usually his comments are perceptive and well reasoned, but in this case I find myself unable to agree with him.

The principles of liberty and justice are, of course, tested when the person who gains the benefit of their protection is despised by the public and the media.

Unfortunately it is usually under the guise of “national security” or the “protection of the people”  that our freedoms are hacked away by the state:

It was as the result of an alleged terrorist arson attack on the Reichstag building in Germany in 1933 that led to the

Decree of the Reich President for the Protection of People and State

which took away the civil liberties of the German people:

On the basis of Article 48 paragraph 2 of the Constitution of the German Reich, the following is ordered in defense against Communist state-endangering acts of violence:

§ 1. Articles 114, 115, 117, 118, 123, 124 and 153 of the Constitution of the German Reich are suspended until further notice. It is therefore permissible to restrict the rights of personal freedom [habeas corpus], freedom of opinion, including the freedom of the press, the freedom to organize and assemble, the privacy of postal, telegraphic and telephonic communications. Warrants for House searches, orders for confiscations as well as restrictions on property, are also permissible beyond the legal limits otherwise prescribed

Of course the removal of these freedoms did not just apply to terrorists, but at a stroke the rights of everyone were removed.

Where they applied only against terrorists?

Ask the Jews, the Gypsies, the disabled or anyone who sought to oppose Hitler’s rule.

In more recent times the terrorist attack on the twin towers lead to the passing of the ironically named PATRIOT Act in the United States which wiped away the protections given to the American people by the US constitution at a stroke:

Freedom of association: To assist terror investigation, the government may monitor religious and political institutions without suspecting criminal activity.

Freedom of speech: The government may prosecute librarians or keepers of any other records if they tell anyone the government subpoenaed information related to a terror investigation.

Right to legal representation: The government may monitor conversations between attorneys and clients in federal prisons and deny lawyers to Americans accused of crimes.

Freedom from unreasonable searches: The government may search and seize Americans’ papers and effects without probable cause to assist terror investigation.

Right to a speedy and public trial: The government may jail Americans indefinitely without a trial.

Right to liberty: Americans may be jailed without being charged or being able to confront witnesses against them. “Enemy combatants” have been held incommunicado and refused attorneys.

Has the legislation only been used on terrorists? Ask the woman arrested under the patriot act for spanking children, or the couple who were arrested under the Patriot Act for kissing on a plane. Less than 9% of searches without due cause were actually used in cases of suspected terrorism.

“National Security”, “terrorism”, “protecting the people” are always the labels used when the state takes away our freedoms, as H.L. Mencken pointed out:

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”

Tim Worstall put it very well:

“We get to jail you if we’ve tried you and found you guilty of a crime: something that was a crime at the time you did it. You get tried in front of a jury, see the evidence against you, get to argue against said evidence, have representation and etc. Doesn’t matter whether you’re a former Cabinet Minister charged with perverting the course of justice, a kiddie fiddler or suspected of being a mass murdering terrorist.

We also get to put you in jail if we’re going to charge and then try you but we think you’ll run away before we do…..and in a very small number of cases, if we think you’ll nobble witnesses.

And that’s actually about it. We don’t get to stick you in a high security jail just because we suspect you’re a bad ‘un. No, not even if you’re suspected of being a terrorist mastermind.

Extradition makes it all a little murkier: some who are to be extradited get bail as they’re not flight risks (nor witness nobblers). Some are regarded as flight risks and don’t. But if we’re not going to extradite the bloke as we wouldn’t allow the evidence in our own courts…..extracted by torture we think, thus tainted….then that doesn’t apply either.

It’s tempting to think that with a real bad ‘un we should throw all of this away so that we can all sleep safely in our beds. But, you know, to be really honest about this? I sleep much more safely in my bed knowing that I cannot, on the basis of information extracted by torture, be declared a bad ‘un and thus locked up indefinitely.

Remember, these rules are not here to protect the Abu Qatadas of this world. They are there to protect us, the citizenry, from the authorities.

Which is why I sleep safer in my bed of night: if the rules will protect some scumbag like him then they’re going to protect me, aren’t they?

I much prefer this system to the American one where suspected bad ‘uns are dumped on an island in the Caribbean…..don’t you?”

It is in difficult cases like those of Abu Qatada that the true defenders of liberty must speak out, liberty and justice are not reserved for those we like or agree with. If we don’t defend the rights of those we despise, then the state will drive a coach and horses through our liberty… one hobgoblin at a time.

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments