75% of my £500 bonus went on Income Tax, VAT, Duty, Etc – How Much is a “Fair Share” ?

Lets Imagine I am a top rate taxpayer and I receive a £500 bonus, if I spend it all, how much goes into the real economy to buy goods and how much is taken by the government in taxes, duties, etc as its “Fair Share”:

     Tax     Goods 
Bonus  £  500.00
Income Tax -£ 250.00  £  250.00
National Insurance -£    10.00  £    10.00
Cash Received  £  240.00
Fill Car
Petrol -£    21.04  £    21.04
Fuel Duty -£    21.08  £    21.08
VAT -£      8.42  £      8.42
Buy Pack Cigarretes
Cigarrettes -£      1.64  £      1.64
Tax -£      5.83  £      5.83
Buy 2 Bottles of Whisky
Single Malt Whisky -£    35.00  £    35.00
Tax -£    25.00  £    25.00
Buy gift for wife
Cost of Gift -£ 101.66  £  101.66
VAT -£    20.33  £    20.33
 £           -  £  340.66  £  159.34
68.1% 31.9%

So it would appear that a “fair share” for the state of my hard earned £500 bonus is 68.1% ?

But, that’s not the whole story, because the £159.34 of “goods” is paid to the companies that produce them and a good part of the cost of those goods is made up of tax.

Assume that the companies involved pay 50% for materials, 40% for Labour and make a 10% pre tax profit:

Revenue  £ 159.34
 Tax   Goods  
Materials -£  79.67  £  79.67
Net Pay To Workers -£  45.79  £  45.79
PAYE -£  11.45  £  11.45
Employers NI -£    5.95  £    5.95
Employees NI -£    0.55  £    0.55
Pre Tax Profit  £   15.93
Tax -£    3.19  £    3.19
Dividends  £   12.75
Income Tax on Dividends -£    1.27  £    1.27
Dividends Received  £   11.47
 £    22.41  £ 136.93
14.1% 85.9%

So the state’s “fair share” is up to (£22.41+£340.66)/£500 = 72.6%

But there is more:

The raw materials of £79.67 purchased by the companies represent the revenue of the companies for whom the raw materials are the outputs and are increased in cost because of tax. So assume 14.1% of that amount also goes in tax, another £11.15 for the state.

(£22.41+£340.66+11.15)/£500 = 74.8%

Allowing for the fact that this process continues further still down the supply chain  It does not seem unreasonable to assume that ultimately the state will take 75%+ of the bonus.

I get to keep just 25% of the value in free market goods and services and the state takes the rest. Yet, still the left demand higher taxes so I pay my “Fair Share”!

 

Posted in General Principles | 1 Comment

The Libertarian Criminal Legal System

This is my final post in answering @simonr916 questions on the practicalities of a libertarian legal system which looks at the mechanics of a free market criminal law system.

To cover all the theoretical nuances is simply not possible in a single blog post. For anyone wanting to study this area in depth I highly recommend: “Anarchy and the Law” which is a fantastic collection of essays on the subject by a number of leading libertarian thinkers.

I am including links to the text and audio or video material to make it a bit easier to digest for those who don;t want to read it all.

A good place to start is Morris & Linda Tannehill:  Chapter 9: The Market for Liberty

Followed by Rothbard – Police, Law & Courts, Chapter 12: For a New Liberty

David Friedmann – Police Courts & laws on the market. Part 3 II – The Machinery of Freedom


There are also a number of societies throughout history that have operated forms of private law without a state. The most interesting ones are:

Iceland between the 10th and 13th Centuries

Irish Celtic Brehon Law from the bronze age right through to the early 17th century

Kapauku Papuans of West New Guinea

 

Posted in General Principles | 1 Comment

Libertarian View of Crimes & Criminal Justice

@simonr916 raised some questions about how could the law, police, courts, etc function in a libertarian society. I dealt with the issue of civil law in my previous post and now move on to criminal law.

Before tackling possible mechanisms of implementing a libertarian criminal justice system (Which I will do on the next post) I need to clarify how libertarians define crime and criminal justice.

What is a crime?

The only things that are considered crimes in a libertarian society are violations of the Non Aggression Principle. The invasion of private property (including the person) using force or the threat of force.

So, crimes include, murder, assault, rape, kidnapping, burglary, robbery, fraud, etc.

Many things that are considered crimes in the statist world are not criminal to the libertarian.

“Victimless Crimes” are not considered crimes in a libertarian society, so taking recreational drugs, driving without a seat belt, smoking in a business establishment if the owner gives permission, unforced prostitution, consumption of pornography, polygamy, etc are not crimes.

Exercising legitimate property rights is not a crime, so refusing to allow people onto your property, even if based on racism, sexism, homophobia or a hatred of people in blue boots, is not a crime. Owning an assault rifle is not a crime, growing drugs is not a crime. Exercising free speech that others find offensive is not a crime.

What is Criminal Justice

In the statist world the criminal commits crimes against the state. He is tried by the state, pays fines to the state and is, in some cases, imprisoned by the state. The principles guiding the state are punishment for the offence, deterrence of other offenders and rehabilitation of the offender back into society.

Libertarian justice in contrast is guided by the principle of restitution. The criminal has wronged the victims and has to make good that wrong, not to “society” but directly to the victim(s). The costs of administering justice, and creating deterrence are also borne by the criminal.

The difference is best explained with an example.

An man robs a pensioner of her life savings of £25,000.

In the statist system he is sentenced to 4 years in prison. After 2 years in prison, if he behaves, his “debt to society” has been discharged and he is free to go. If he has been successful at hiding his loot, he can enjoy his ill gotten gains. The pensioner has still lost her life savings and innocent members of society have had to pay to catch, prosecute and incarcerate him.

In the libertarian system he is “sentenced” to repay the victim the £25,000 plus compensation for her distress, the costs of catching and trying him and an amount to deter other criminals. The criminals assets are sold off and he is detained and put to work until the victim is restored and compensated and all the costs of the crime are paid for. The victim is fully compensated, no innocent members of society are forced to pay anything and all the costs of the crime are suffered by the criminal.

Now we are clear on what libertarians mean by a crime and criminal justice, we can move on to look at how a private system of criminal law enforcement would operate.

For a more in depth exposition try this

 

Posted in General Principles | 7 Comments

Questions For Libertarians – How Would Civil Law Work?

A couple of questions on this from @simonr916

In a minarchist state:

How would such a government come into being and who would
run and administer this organisation? How would decisions on spending money be made? Who would draft the laws, choose the judges, appoint the police officers and so on?

Alternatively In an Anarcho-Capitalist Society:

In such a country, each man would be left to defend his own property and rights. You’d live in constant fear of a larger, or better armed, group taking your property by force. If you choose to have no government, how does the honest man protect his property from those who wish to take it?

I am going to deal with this in a slightly different way because the first set of questions are also important in an Anarcho-Capitalistic society. The questions really boil down to how would a system of law operate in a libertarian society and how would laws be enforced.

There are two distinct types of law, civil law relating to the enforcement of agreements such as contracts and criminal law relating to violations of property rights (including the physical person). I will address civil law in this post and criminal law in the next.

Civil Law in a Libertarian Society

In a libertarian society people would be free to contract under any set of rules they agree on. To a large extent such a system of multiple legal systems already operates. It is quite common in commercial contracts between businesses operating in different countries (which have different legal systems) to include a contract clause that says the contract is to be construed in accordance with the laws of for example, England & Wales or Switzerland. The only difference in a libertarian society is that rather than being restricted to the laws passed by geographic states, they would be free to select the laws drafted by private businesses, such as The National Legal Services Company or the Association of Wine Merchants.

One of the benefits is that the laws could be very specific to the trade in question and being drafted by industry experts on both sides, would be likely to function far more effectively in line with the parties needs and expectations than a generic set of laws applying to the geographic area controlled by the state.

In the event of a dispute the conflict could be adjudicated on by any one of a number of private courts. Again this is already taking place. Many contracts already specify the use of  private arbitration companies, rather than courts. Usually because they are quicker and less expensive.

So to answer some of the questions raised, the laws are drafted by private companies, the courts are run as private companies and the judges/arbitrators are appointed by private companies. Market forces work to continually improve the quality of all parts. Since both sides have to agree to any law, or any court they must continually strive to be as balanced and as fair as possible.

In the state system if a particular judge has a prejudice against dairy farmers they have no choice but to suffer the prejudice. The judge has a state ordained monopoly on the administration of justice in his court. In a free market system, such a judge would simply not get any of the dairy farmers business. A totally partisan judge would go bankrupt!

Since the parties involved bear the costs they must continually strive to be efficient or a lower cost competitor may take their business. Courts that start at 10:00am and finish at 3:00pm would be replaced by courts that optimize their operations to reduce the costs to their clients.

How could the judgements of such private courts be enforced? In the current system if one party ignores the ruling of binding arbitration the state courts and the officers of the state will coerce them to comply. If there is no state, to threaten violence how will judgements be  enforced?

The answer is simple. Those who do not obey a ruling of a private arbitration court are simply blacklisted by the entire private arbitration system and publicly named and shamed.  Who would risk making a contract with another party who cannot have any dispute resolved by a third paty impartial judge and who is known not to honor rulings made by arbitration? It would simply be commercial suicide for anyone to flout such a ruling as they would be ostracizing themselves from the dispute resolution procedure required to trade. (In the event of fraud or other criminal activity additional options are open to the victim as for any crime, which are covered in the following post.)

Such a system is not just theoretically possible but historically mercantile law was developed and enforced by private merchant courts as was admirality law, before the state claimed sole jurisdiction. Perhaps a more recent example of a self regulating commercial community is Ebay. Anyone who cheats customers receives negative feedback which makes it, at best much more difficult, at worst impossible to continue to trade with other members of the community.

Most transactions covered by the civil law would be business to business transactions, but this branch of the law also covers the case of consumers buying from businesses.

What about the “poor”?

How can they pay for private arbitration, if a large corporation breaks the terms of its agreement with them to provide, for example a new satellite dish?

There are several options:

Insurance would be available in the free market to cover the costs. Annual legal insurance for £50,000 can be purchased today for £20 a year (5.5p a day) and the price would be much lower under a more cost efficient private arbitration system. This should be within the reach of all but the very poorest. Without a state funded legal system awareness of the importance of such insurance would be high.

Reputable sellers would include the offer of funded arbitration proceedings in the terms and conditions of their offering to demonstrate their confidence in the high quality of their products or services. The poor could restrict their purchases to only vendors offering this protection.

No win, no fee arrangements where a proportion of any damages are paid out to the person taking the case to arbitration would be very common in a libertarian legal system.

Charitable or pro-bono legal representation would also be available to many, as it is today.

For commercial/civil laws there is clearly no need for the state to be involved.

Posted in General Principles | 6 Comments

Questions For Libertarians – Isn’t it inevitable that inequality will increase with every generation

The next question from @simonr916

“Will a Libertarian world not become more and more unequal
as each generation further entrenches the privilege of the few?

Those people who have been successful will naturally wish to give their own children advantages and protections in life. They will pay for education, help their children develop networks of useful contacts, give them resources to use as capital and so on.

Those who were not successful will not be able to do things. Their own children – through chance of birth and no fault of their own – will have much less chance of success, even if they are hard working and clever. They will, of course, have no state education or welfare support.

Many of the most successful people in society have ‘pulled themselves up by the bootstraps’. Poverty is a great motivator. These people do this through hard work and ability, but they also require opportunity– whether that be a state education (which may allow them to shine and
achieve a bursary for higher education), or a public library for
research, or a small amount of capital to start their own business, or welfare support so that every moment isn’t dedicated to base survival”

It is certainly true that each of us has different opportunities, resources and abilities. The children of attractive parents are more likely to be born attractive, the children of intelligent parents are more likely to be born intelligent and the children of rich parents are more likely to have capital to start their way in life.

However, the relationships are complex. Regression to the mean dictates that the children of highly intelligent parents will not be quite as intelligent as their parents, children of highly attractive parents will not be quite as attractive. Over the generations the children tend to revert to the mean.

Many millionaires feel that to give large quantities of unearned wealth to their children would do them more harm than good and leave their fortune to charities instead.

Many who receive large amounts of unearned income lose it all in a remarkably short period of time. According to some sources 1/3 of lottery winners declare bankruptcy 

I can see two possible arguments in your comments:

1. Inequality would increase simply because inherited wealth accumulates
2. Inequality would increase because opportunities for those without any inherited wealth would disappear.

If the first argument were true, it would also be true, albeit at a slower rate, in any society that did not have a 100% inheritance tax.

We have had countless generations without such a tax and yet 80% of millionaires are the first generation of their family to become wealthy!

The reality is that inherited wealth is more likely to be dissipated by inept children than grown further for the grand children. The saying cloggs to cloggs in three generations or the Saudi version: “My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet airplane. His son will ride a camel” reflect the fact that 9 out of 10 wealthy families lose their wealth by the third generation.

The second possible argument makes the unjustified assumption that without state support there would be no opportunities for those born without wealth.

To equate no state education with no education, no public libraries with no libraries and no inherited capital to start a business with no capital to start a business is simply an error.

Private schools already offer scholarships to bright pupils who cannot afford the fees.
Free education at university level is available online at places like Khan Academy , Coursera and Itunes U . There are thousands of digital books available free for kindle users. It is highly likely that low cost education would be available using shared computers, kindles and online resources such as these once the state monopoly on education was removed. Parents and local communities would also club together to provide access to these resources and charities promoting education and industry sponsored schools would also likely be supported for the very poorest.

As a society we value the importance of education, it is in the interests of parents, children, employers, etc so the idea that it would not exist without the state is simply wrong. The free market and charity can do anything the state can do, usually better and more cheaply.

The idea that without inherited capital you cannot start a business is also simply wrong. The traditional way to acquire capital is to save. Work as much as possible, spend as little as possible and save the difference.

If you have a good enough idea you can bring in outside investors for a share of the business, or you can borrow money and pay interest on the loan.

I had no inherited capital but formed a business through personal savings an external investor and some money borrowed on a credit card.

It is therefore not inevitable that inequality would increase with every generation in a libertarian society. As long as opportunity is not crushed at the bottom end of the wealth scale it would not matter if it did. Wealth is not a fixed pie to be divided up, but an infinitely expandable pie with plenty for all who contribute.

As a libertarian the fact that others have been much more successful than me is not a cause for concern but a challenge to do better myself having had my eyes opened to what is possible.

 

Posted in General Principles | 3 Comments

Questions For Libertarians – Corporate Deception & Regulation

A combination of two related question from @simonr916

a).Without regulation, what is to stop companies from acting
in amoral or immoral ways to the detriment of all

b).Without regulation and controls, how can we avoid being
deceived and make meaningful choices?

A libertarian world would permit snake-oil salesmen to tour from town to town, making fantastical claims to the poorly educated citizenry (no state education remember) but would also allow big companies to say what they liked.

So tobacco companies could still be telling us that smoking cures asthma, and we’d have no way of knowing how much fat, salt and sugar there is in a happy meal.

Perhaps the first thing to point out is that even with state regulation and controls we are not protected from deception. Homeopathy practitioners, Tarot card readers, psychic healers and all manner of nonsense peddlers continue to operate in our state regulated society. Exploiting the wise state educated citizenry on a daily basis.

Tobacco companies carried out their historic deceptions in a statist society not a libertarian one and  we have recently had the joys of horse meat in our “beef” despite the state funded Food Standards Agency regulating this industry.

You cannot prevent people from saying things that are untrue, unless you are an omniscient dictator.

What matters is how you deal with people who knowingly deceive.

Lets compare the statist and libertarian response to a hypothetical example of a company selling a pleasant tasting drink, Brand X. The company knows it causes cancer, but it is very addictive, causing customers to buy 20 to 40 cans a day and once they start they will be brand X drinkers for life. It is highly profitable product and all the executives are on six figure profit related bonus schemes.

In the regulated statist world
People start to get cancer.
People start to make connections and start to suspect that the problem is with Brand X. They call the authorities who have limited fixed budgets and decide that it is not cost effective to investigate this now, they have other priorities.
More people start to get cancer and more people call the authorities.
Eventually they decide the matter must be investigated and schedule some research.
The research is state funded, budgets are tight and it may take many years to be started. Finally the evidence is in and the case is overwhelming that Brand X is to blame.
Unfortunately the state is earning large amounts of tax income from the sales of Brand X and has a conflict of interest in banning the product.
The chairman of the company is also a big donor to the political party in power and entertains many politicians on his luxury yacht in the Bahamas each year.
A compromise is reached and they negotiate some laws that mean the packages of Brand X have to carry a warning and fine the company several hundred million pounds for deception.
The company pays the fine by missing a dividend to the shareholders.
The executives get to keep the six figure bonuses they made in each of the ten years before the problems were identified and action taken.
Other company executives see this and decide that the punishment for deception is nothing compared to the bonuses they can earn from the extra profit.

They launch brand Y the following week and Brand Z the week after. Incidences of unexplained cancer continue to rise.

In the libertarian world 
People start to get cancer.
People start to make connections and start to suspect that the problem is with Brand X. They call a private law firm.
Seeing the opportunity for a profit from a contingency fee arrangement, the private law firm hires a private research firm immediately to do some preliminary research.
The results look damaging so they pay to have a full study done immediately.
The evidence is overwhelming against brand X and the law firm takes action.
Since there are no limited liability corporations in a libertarian society the individual executives and investors are held personally accountable.
Libertarian justice operates on the principle of restitution for the victims. Those managers or investors the court is satisfied knew brand x caused cancer are guilty of murder. Libertarian punishment is set by the victims or their heirs and for murder the maximum punishment is the death penalty.
The injured parties signed an agreement with the law firm allowing many of the more junior guilty parties to buy themselves out of their punishment by selling all their possessions including their homes, with the money being paid in compensation to the victims and their families after covering the legal and research costs.

The managing director and senior executive team are executed at the request of the victims. The share price plummets costing individual investors most of their life savings.

Other executives see this and decide that deception is very risky.
Investors see increased risks in the food and drink industry and refuse to get involved with any company unless they hire an independent research firm to confirm the safety of all products before launch.
Junior managers and employees refuse to work for food companies that don’t allow staff association appointed researchers to check product safety before launch.

In the coming months Brand P, Brand Q and Brand R are retired and withdrawn from the market. Incidences of unexplained cancer fall steadily.

 

To be clear there is no system that will ensure nobody is ever deceived.
You cannot regulate and investigate everything so you need consumer or academic suspicions to uncover potential malpractice.
Private, profit motivated law firms and research companies are structurally more responsive then fixed budget bureaucracies.
There are no conflicts of interest between a victim and the criminal who has harmed them, these are possible between criminal and state.
State regulation and limited liability protection creates moral hazard for Executives, employees and investors. Libertarian restitutional justice and personal liability removes this.

 

Posted in General Principles | 8 Comments

Questions For Libertarians – Without the State, How Will Money Work?

Another question from @simonr916

Without the state, how will money work?

I’m not an economist so this is genuine musing here but the monetary system, as it currently works, relies upon states to under-write and guarantee currency, set interest rates and control supply. I have no idea how this whole system would work in a libertarian world.

This is a relatively simple one.

In the beginning of society trade took place by way of barter. If I wanted your pig and you wanted my goat, we would agree and simply swap. If we agreed that your pig was worth more than my goat, I might have to throw in a chicken or two to close the transaction.

The problem with such a system is that it is very inefficient.

If I want shoes and I have hens and you have shoes but want turnips then we can’t trade directly. I have to find a third party who will trade hens for turnips before I can get the shoes I want.

When people can’t trade for directly what they want, they will trade for items that have a larger potential trade audience. E.g. If you offer singing lessons, you would rather exchange them for corn, which many people will want, rather than quantum physics lessons, which have a much smaller market.

Over time certain trade goods gain the status of currency. Everyone will trade for them and everyone will accept them. In many societies the trade goods that gained the status of currency were precious metals like gold and silver. These had the benefit of being durable and divisible and relatively easy to store. Nobody was forced to accept them in exchange but almost everyone did.

Economies have functioned for thousands of years, using precious metals as money.

One of the modern problems with precious metals is that for large transactions they can be quite cumbersome and dangerous to move around. The solution was to store the precious metals in private bank vaults and instead transport around and deal with certificates of ownership.

The gold could stay secure in the vault and you could buy for example a house by simply transferring the ownership certificate to the gold in the bank vault.

Any private bank could hold gold deposits and issue their own certificates of ownership. Referred to as Bank Notes. Ownership entitlements could of course also be transferred by cards, cheques, etc.

This is how money would work in a libertarian system and how money worked for most of human history.

The state changed the free market system in three main ways:

1. Granting itself a monopoly on the issuing of bank notes in the USA in 1863  in the United Kingdom in 1844

2.By breaking the link between currency physical trade goods, i.e. gold. This happened as recently as 1971 when the United States totally abandoned the Gold Standard

3. Allowing Fractional reserve banking. This gives the bank a legal right to issue more notes than there is gold in the vaults.

A libertarian society would revert back to the system used in the free market from the dawn of the first trading nations up until the time of  these three catastrophic state interventions.

For further reading on money and banking try:

The Mystery of Banking – Murray Rothbard
The Theory of Money & Credit – Ludwig Von Mises

Posted in General Principles | 6 Comments

Questions For Libertarians Taxation & State Funded Services

@Simon916 has raised a number of questions about libertarian views. There are 11 in total and all are sensible questions. I will not go through them in order, I will deal with the what I consider the weakest points first and work through to the strongest.

If Libertarians hold that it is morally wrong for the state to take their money in taxes, why do they not take the principled stand against this moral wrong and refuse to pay tax in the full knowledge of the consequences? Why do they not refuse to use services paid for through immoral means?

I suspect that most libertarians are not living in such desperate
circumstances, or lack the necessary capacity for such absolute self
sacrifice, required to take the drastic action required to bring about
social change in the face of a moral wrong.”

There are two distinct point here.

1. Why don’t libertarians refuse to pay taxes
2. Why do libertarians use services funded by taxes

For libertarians the decision on the first point is simply a choice between two evils. Pay taxes that you think are unjust or have your liberty taken away and spend part of your life in prison!

If a burglar holds a knife to your throat and says open the safe or I will murder you. It is rational to open the safe. It does not imply any hypocrisy to subsequently assert that you are against burglary.

If everyone chose to die rather than open their safe, it would over time change society. Burglars would get no benefit and seek other ways to operate. This would be good for society, but a lot to ask of the first few thousand victims and their families.

The same argument can be raised against socialists. If they feel it is morally wrong for large inequalities in wealth to exist, why don’t they simply rob the rich and give to themselves and take the consequences?

Decisions made under threat of force do not shed any light on the morality of the person being threatened.

I don’t think this is a valid criticism of libertarians. It might be a criticism of humanity that we prefer self preservation to martyrdom, but that is a more general philosophical issue.

The second point is why do libertarians use services funded by taxation. The implication being that it is hypocritical to take the benefits of taxation, whilst opposing it.

A specific example of this point that comes up a lot on Twitter, not in this case from @Simon916, is the claim that Ayn Rand was a hypocrite for excepting welfare and state medical assistance in her final years. I will use Ayn Rand’s own words on the subject (made long before she became ill) to explain the point:

The same moral principles and considerations apply to the issue of accepting social security, unemployment insurance or other payments of that kind. It is obvious, in such cases, that a man receives his own money which was taken from him by force, directly and specifically, without his consent, against his own choice. Those who advocated such laws are morally guilty, since they assumed the “right” to force employers and unwilling co-workers. But the victims, who opposed such laws, have a clear right to any refund of their own money—and they would not advance the cause of freedom if they left their money, unclaimed, for the benefit of the welfare-state administration.

The Objectivist, June, 1966

So taking benefits from the state, at least up to the value of any tax you have paid, is simply restitution. The return of your rightful property, taken by the state without your consent.

What if you consume more in benefits than you have paid in taxes?

In many cases there is simply no alternative to using taxation funded services. E.g. If you want to have a crime investigated and a criminal punished the state has granted itself a monopoly on the provision of this service. If you want to use the road network to travel, the state owns virtually all the roads.

To quote Ayn Rand again:

“ The victims do not have to add self-inflicted martyrdom to the injury done to them by others; they do not have to let the looters profit doubly, by letting them distribute the money exclusively to the parasites who clamored for it.

The equivalent argument to socialists would be that they should starve rather than eat food produced by profit making private corporations or live in the dark rather than use energy created by big oil & gas companies.

If you have no alternatives in the environment you find yourself in, it is not hypocrisy to make rational self serving choices within that framework, and still oppose the framework.

 

 

 

 

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Gun Control – Answering The Issues Raised 3

“You start your latest posting by defending the use of the Small Arms Survey as the basis for the analysis that you quoted in your original piece. I’m sure that the survey is a useful source of information and I accept that it is quoted and used by reputable organizations. This does not equate to the survey being a suitable, or the most suitable, source of data for meaningful statistical analysis.”

Agreed, but nor does it preclude it from being such.

“You say that the survey seems, to you, to be the best source of data we have and challenge me to suggest a more reliable data source. I’d remind you that in your previous blog  you included a link to an academic article which argued that the proportion of firearm suicides to overall suicides is the most reliable proxy for establishing gun prevalence. This, of course, is the measure used in the peer reviewed article which I provided as evidence of a correlation between gun ownership and homicide.”

Any proxy must be validated against actual ownership. So what has it been validated against? To quote your preferred article

“FS/S, which measures the distribution of firearm vs nonfirearm methods used in suicide rather than the rate of suicide, has been validated against survey-based measures of household gun ownership. A recent study determined that FS/S is the best proxy for household firearm ownership rates of the half-dozen or more proxies that have been used in the literature.19 FS/S is highly correlated with the percentage of households reporting firearm ownership in studies of 16 developed nations (r = 0.91),22 the 9 US census regions (r = 0.93),23 21 US states (r = 0.90),23 170 US cities (r = 0.86),24 and 12 areas within a single state (r = 0.87).19

So  internationally it has been tested on just 16 developed nations. This would require the leap of faith that the correlation holds for all other nations, developed or not. I see no reason why this is intrinsically any more reliable than the small arms survey data. There are many cultural issues that influence the choice of suicide method which are liekly to invalidate any extrapolation. Perhaps we shall have to agree that there is no reliable international data on which to establish a correlation between gun ownership and homicide rates. Of course in the absence of such data we have no reason to reject the null hypothesis that there is no relationship.

However, all is not lost, the data I used for the US state analysis was a survey based measure of household gun ownership. If we have actual survey ownership data we don’t need to use a proxy, that correlates to it. We have actual survey data to work with, the gold standard and that confirms that there is no correlation!

“I didn’t question the US state gun ownership data. I confess that I haven’t given a moment’s thought to the reliability of this data – my time to expend on this debate is limited and my comments have been more than long enough as is. Whilst gun controls and gun ownership may well vary from state to state, there are no controls to prevent the transport of guns from one state to another (apart from in the case of Hawaii, which I believe has both the lowest gun ownership and the lowest homicide rate in the US). As such, state by state gun prevalence is less likely to be relevant than data for individual countries.”

Unfortunately, the “peer reviewed” article that you quote as your primary source of evidence for the correlation between gun ownership and homicide rates is a US state by state analysis!

Based on the above comment I assume you have changed your position and now assert that this is no longer compelling evidence?

I’m sticking with the evidence that I have supplied as the best direct analysis we’ve seen regarding the correlation.

Hmm, that will be the article that uses the second hand proxy of survey data instead of the available actual survey data and uses what you term unreliable state by state data instead of country by country data?

You state that I have ‘glossed over […] the strongest evidence for the lack of any significant correlation’ which you feel is provided by the British Journal of Criminology paper.

Your position is that a large group of criminologists – the bulk ofthose examining the inequality/homicide link over several decades – have all concluded that gun prevalence is irrelevant to crime (based upon evidence unknown), have decided that this is an issue which requires no further study, and haven’t bothered to inform the other large group of criminologists who have meanwhile been hotly arguing this very question. Furthermore, the many researchers funded by the NRA and other pro-gun groups haven’t spotted and pointed out that the weight of unbiased academic opinion is firmly set in their favour. I glossed over it because it is a ridiculous argument.

You have created a straw man argument. I make no comment on whether gun prevalence requires no further study.

It has been your position all along that my original analysis is invalid because it does not control for important variables. Your criticism was

“This analysis makes no attempt to adjust for socio-economic factors such as population density, poverty and inequality, levels of corruption within government and law enforcement etc.”

Your most recent comment abandons this line of attack altogether so perhaps that is no longer your view? However, not a single one of these criminologists felt it necessary to control for gun ownership levels in their studies of homicide rates.

Now you can’t have it both ways, either they didn’t bother to control for gun ownership because it is not worth controlling for. Which supports my position. Why control for an independent variable with zero correlation to the dependent variable?

Alternatively, it is not necessary to control for socio-economic factors and gun ownership in a study aimed at one or the other. Which undermines your criticism of my analysis.

Calling this point ridiculous and creating a straw man argument inferring incorrect views to my position may muddy the water, but does not answer the point.

If gun ownership was highly correlated to homicide rates, you would expect every study on homicide rates to need to control for it. (Most of them seem to control for poverty or inequality for example) They don’t control for it, why not?

“If what you infer from this paper was the case, then those same academics wouldn’t have bothered engaging in any subsequent research which relates to the correlation between gun prevalence and homicide. They’ve already decided, so
wouldn’t waste their time considering the question any further. With some difficulty (Google is my only tool), I’ve tracked down other work by a number of these researchers and can advise that this is not the case:… Long list of Gun Research Papers”

This is a straw man argument again, misrepresenting my view. There is no reason why these researchers would not examine the issues of gun control and violent crime, even homicide in specific circumstances.

I am not claiming, as you imply, that they made a decision to exclude gun ownership because, after extensive analysis they concluded it was not important. I am saying that academic criminologists do not consider gun ownership rates sufficiently highly correlated with homicides to control for it as part of their research into other areas. If it where they would have to, or it would invalidate all their research!

You have done a commendable job in tracking down the work of these authors, in and around the area of guns and gun control and violent crime. However the papers you quote  focus on specific situations e.g. New Mexico Juveniles, high rate offenders and violent crime, rather than any general investigation into homicide rates and gun ownership.

It is in no way inconsistent to accept no general correlation between homicide rates and gun ownership and still want to explore the impact of gun ownership on violent crime committed by persistent offenders or other specific narrower questions.

You provide a list of 20th century genocides and argue that
gun ownership is a defence against genocide.

Let’s start with this evidence that more Americans have died
from domestic gunfire since 1968 than in all wars in their history. That’s 1,384,171 domestic gunfire deaths. Even if we remove 2 thirds of this number as a generous estimate of the number of those deaths which were suicide that leaves
us with over 460,000 homicides and accidental deaths in just over 50 years. So your argument that ‘the smallest of these genocides’ outweighs the damage caused by domestic guns is demonstrably wrong.

Fair point, my error, only the top 6 genocides contained more murders. However, taken as a whole they account for over 67 Million murders, which equates to 7,287 years of US gun deaths! The point remains that it is orders of magnitude more.

By limiting your list to the 20th century, of course, you miss out the native Americans who were subject to a systematic genocide by the US government, despite being armed.

I am not sure that the rate of firearm ownership amongst native americans was very high?
This was also more of a case of invasion, rather than a domestic tyranny. (Which is, of course, in no way to excuse what was a horrendous genocide)

“To take one of the most striking examples which is on your list, the Nazi’s actually relaxed strict gun controls which had been put in place following World War I. Whilst they undoubtedly disarmed the Jews, ownership of guns by other Germans was regulated but not restricted. The Nazi genocide of the Jews was only possible with the assistance – or at the very least without the resistance – of the vast majority of the German people, and it is ridiculous to suggest that the Jewish community, even in possession of side arms, could have mounted a successful armed resistance that would have prevented this genocide. The same can be said of Stalinist Russia, Communist China and the rest.”

If someone came to take away my family in the middle of the night to send them to a concentration camp, rest assured it would be much more dangerous for them if I was armed. It is hard to get even storm troopers to break into a house with an armed citizenry. It only needs a few hundred of them to be shot, before the number of new recruits drys up.

Even with an armed population, there is little possibility that a
minority group within the US – say, Muslims, for example – could successfully defend themselves against a genocide conducted by the government which has gained the connivance of the majority of the population. Without having obtained this support, there is no possibility that the government could carry
out a widespread genocide, even if the population was unarmed.

You make two assertions without evidence.

Does Mugabe in Zimbabwe have the connivance of the majority of the population, or Assad in Syria, did Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Pol Pot in Cambodia? There are clearly counter examples to your position that mass murder of the civilian population only takes place with the general support of the population.

Even if you can find examples where an armed civilian population were subject to a genocide (I am not convinced by your native american example) it does not alter the fact that it is much more difficult and therefore at least some potential genocides would be avoided.

Where two armed groups within a country are sufficiently well matched, the resulting conflict between a government and a significant section of its population is a civil war. Whilst civil wars may be more palatable than genocides, they are often just as deadly.

Agreed, but in some cases neither will happen as both sides see the potential cost is too high. In the other cases the alternative is tyranny and genocide, so I am not sure you can be anything but better off by being armed.

It is worth noting the vast majority of countries with gun control where genocide has not occurred, and remember that the best defence against tyranny and genocide are democracy and international law.

This is logically very weak. Genocide is fortunately very rare. A more useful measure would be what % of countries suffering from genocides of their own citizens had gun control, versus the % of countries that did not.

International law didn’t do much for the 67 Million + murdered in 20th century genocides. Democracy was not much help for the Jews when the Germans democratically elected the Nazi Party to power.

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Gun Control – Answering The Issues Raised 2

Thanks once again to @simonr916 for engaging in debate on this issue. I think we can both agree that the academic literature in this area is not clear cut, that those producing it are seldom impartial (on either side) and that quoting different gun research papers at each other is unlikely to move the debate forward in a way that would convince either side.

The first of the remaining issues is our disagreement about the correlation, or lack thereof, between the homicide rate and gun ownership data.

Perhaps the most obvious point that I have not previously made is that the burden of proof rests with those who wish to assert that there is a correlation and not the other way around. The base presumption must be that A & B are not correlated unless strong evidence is adduced that they are.

@Simon916 has two main arguments

1. The data that I used to demonstrate a lack of correlation is not good data
2. The fact that no correlation is demonstrated is invalid because of failure to control for other variables

I will address these points in turn:

Good Data

@Simon916 attacks the 2007 small arms survey as being an imperfect guide to cross national gun ownership levels. This is of course perfectly valid, there is no such thing as perfect data for cross national gun ownership.

However the Small Arms Survey, despite its flaws seems to me the best data we have:

“ The Small Arms Survey is an independent research project located at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, Switzerland. It serves as the principal international source of public information on all aspects of small arms and armed violence and as a resource for governments, policy-makers, researchers, and activists”

It is widely quoted, by non-pro gun sources, such as the Guardian and the UN

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/jul/22/gun-homicides-ownership-world-list

http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/tocta/6.Firearms.pdf

If, arguento, this data is not robust enough and there is no better data, then there is no argument with which to refute the null hypothesis that there is no relationship between gun ownership levels and homicide rates.
In the absence of reliable contrary data we would retain the null hypothesis.

If @Simon916 (or anyone else) can point me to more robust data that does show a correlation, then I would of course have to re-examine my conclusions.

@Simon916 does not raise any specific concerns about the data for gun ownership across US states, which was based on the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The numbers as reported in the Washington Post can be seen here. I of course accept that this data is also not perfect, no form of survey data can be, but once again the best data I can find shows not the slightest hint of a correlation.

The burden of proof is not on those denying a correlation it is on those wishing to assert one. The alternative would be the same as somebody saying we should ban chocolate because it causes cancer and using as an argument the fact that there is no reliable data to prove that chocolate eating does not cause cancer!

Failure to Control For Other Variables

It is certainly important to control for other significant influencing variables when working out the scale of a relationship. The problem here is that how you define and select the controlling variables can have a significant influence on the outcome. If you have a political agenda in your research or are funded by a group with a political agenda it is possible to get data to say almost anything you want!

Controlling for other variables is most useful when you have a strong initial correlation between the two factors under investigation and there is a concern that your predictive variable may be overstated in importance because it is highly correlated with something that is already known to be predictive. (E.g. For homicide rates controlling for poverty seems to  significantly reduce the importance of inequality)

For there to be zero initial correlation between two variables and a significant correlation after  controlling for other variables would require a near perfect negative correlation between the predictive variable and the control variables, which seems a highly unlikely state of affairs!

If @Simon916 can point me to any papers in any, non-politicized, field where an initial zero correlation between two variables becomes significant after controlling for other variables then of course I would be prepared to reconsider my view on this point.

@Simon916 glosses over what I think is the strongest evidence for the lack of any significant correlation:

If Gun Ownership were a significant factor in homicide rates then scholars investigating the relationship of homicide to other things, such as poverty, would need to control for it in their research. These scholars probably have no political interest in the gun control debate and will only control for variables that have a real influence.

This paper from the British Journal of Criminology reviews 47 cross national studies of the relationship between poverty and homicides. Conveniently for our purposes it also lists the variables that the researchers controlled for in each study.

Not one of them controlled for gun ownership!

If scholars without a vested interest don’t regard gun ownership as a variable worth controlling for in their own field of research, I think it is safe to assume it is not important.

@Simon916 responds with:

My answer to this is that I don’t know and it would be difficult to reach any
meaningful conclusion without looking back at each of those reviews. Frankly, I don’t have the time or the inclination.

It may be that some or all of these reviews looked at a range of countries within a geographical area which happened to have similar gun laws, therefore rendering this issue pointless as a control. It may be that the bulk of these studies, which are from decades ago, pre-dated many of the gun laws and restrictions which have since been put in place. Given that the conclusion of the article is that nearly all of the studies failed to control for one of the most important factors – poverty – it may be that they also
missed another important one.”

This paper is a review of ALL the leading research in the area. A look at the paper shows that many of the papers cover over 100 countries, many were published in the 1990′s or 2000′s and they cover a mind boggling array of control variables, to list a sample from just one paper:

Drunken brawling
Military authority
Political authority
Political oppression
Population size
Typical settlement size
Wife beating
Change in moral codes
Change in trad. authority
Change in subsist. occup.
Divorce
Population density
Judicial authority
Organizational complexity
Largest settlement size
Technological complexity

If the entire scholastic community in all its research into homicides and inequality do not consider it worth controlling for gun ownership then it simply cannot be significant.

If @Simon916 (or anyone else) can point me to research papers investigating homicide rates (not primarily related to gun ownership), that do control for gun ownership then of course that would weaken this point.

The rest of the points raised I think can be condensed into the fact that we agree, (from a utilitarian perspective if not a rights based one) that the issue boils down to deciding whether the additional murders caused by gun ownership are greater or smaller than the murders avoided by gun ownership.

On the additional murders  side of the equation we have:
The subset of criminals who commit murder who would not have substituted an alternative weapon for a firearm
A subset of previously lawful individuals (Such as school shooters) who would have decided not to committed murder by a substitute method without access to a firearm
The subset of criminals who kill with a firearm, who would not have carried a firearm if their potential victims were unarmed and would not have killed them by alternative means

On the murders avoided side of the equation we have:
Deaths avoided because an armed civilian prevented a crime that would have escalated to become a murder
Deaths avoided because potential criminals who would have committed murders in the course of their crimes decided a life of crime was too risky and did something else.

We have different views on the relative scale and importance of each element in each group. In most cases they are very difficult to measure and in many cases impossible.

The zero correlation between gun ownership and homicide rates both internationally and within US states in recent years would seem to indicate that the balance between these factors is, in reality, quite close.

A strong positive correlation would support the anti-gun lobby and a strong negative correlation would support the pro-gun lobby. Neither is apparent in the data.

However, there are two remaining factors that go against gun control.

  1. It is not enough that something has a neutral effect to ban it, even under utilitarian principles. A clear harm must be shown by those seeking the ban.
  2. The fundamental reason that the US constitution sought to allow citizens to own firearms was not to deter domestic criminals but to provide a deterrent to tyranny and state genocide.

The numbers killed in state genocides of an unarmed civilian population in the 20th century, dwarf, by orders of magnitude, the firearms murders in civilian cases.

In the USA in 2011 there were 8,583 firearms murders, compared to:

# 1915 – 1917 Ottoman Turkey, 1.5 million Armenians murdered;
# 1929 – 1953 Soviet Union, 20 million people that opposed Stalin were murdered;
# 1933 – 1945 Nazi occupied Europe, 13 million Jews, Gypsies and others;
# 1927 – 1949 China, 10 million pro communists;
# 1948 – 1952 China, 20 million anti communists;
# 1960 – 1981 Guatemala, 100,000 Mayan Indians Murdered;
# 1971 – 1979 Uganda, 300,000 Christians and Political Rivals of Idi Amin murdered;
# 1975 – 1979 Cambodia, 2 million educated persons murdered.
# 1994 Rwanda 800,000 Tutsi’s murdered.
# 1992 – 1995 Bonsia 200,000 Muslims murdered

If an armed citizenry would have prevented even the smallest of these genocides it would have saved more lives than a hundred years of US firearms murders.

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